[h=1]Top 10 undervalued fantasy WRs[/h][h=3]Dez Bryant among players who should be drafted higher[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
The wide receiver position is second only to quarterback in terms of quality fantasy football depth this year. This fact moves wideouts down on the draft-day priority list for fantasy owners but in some cases it is causing players to fall below their actual value level.
This fourth part of a four-part series -- the first three parts can be accessed by clicking on the links above -- aims to assist fantasy owners to take advantage of this situation by identifying the 10 most undervalued wide receivers.
[h=3]1. Dez Bryant[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 18.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 3
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 2
Adrian Peterson won the 2012 MVP award because of his phenomenal performance in the last eight games of the year, but Bryant actually gave him a run for his money in terms of having an amazing second half of the season. Bryant racked up a 12.0 YPA in that time frame and put up 142 fantasy points. Prorate that point total over a 16-game campaign and it equals a QB1-like 284 points.
<OFFER>He was terrific against every level of cornerback competition (11.2 YPA against qualifying cornerbacks) and that is a huge plus for a wideout who has one of the most favorable cornerback schedules in 2013. This gives Bryant a potential point ceiling that justifies taking him over every wide receiver except Calvin Johnson.
[h=3]2. Mike Wallace[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 48.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 16
TFS positional rank: No. 10
In October 2011 there was a strong case to be made that Wallace had been a bigger gamebreaker than Calvin Johnson over the previous 22 games. Wallace has regressed some since then but that is largely because of the Steelers' injuries at quarterback. Joining an offense with Ryan Tannehill at the controls is a big plus. According to my draft guide,Tannehill racked up a 14.2-yard mark on 54 attempts in the stretch vertical yards per attempt (SVYPA) metric that gauges production on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield. That total ranked ninth in the league and was better than the SVYPA marks posted by Matt Ryan (13.7 on 60 attempts), Aaron Rodgers (12.9 on 67 attempts) and Tony Romo (12.4 on 69 attempts). Wallace may not get back to Megatron's level but he is very likely to reach WR1 status again this year and can currently be acquired for a fifth-round pick.
[h=3]3. Hakeem Nicks[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 56.7
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 18
TFS positional rank: No. 11
Rather than knocking Nicks for his injury-riddled 2012 performance, look at it this way: He posted a 7.5 YPA on only one good leg. Since the midpoint YPA for wide receivers is roughly 8.5 YPA, Nicks was only a yard off of that level under far less than ideal conditions. To be fair, health does seem to be something of a recurring issue for Nicks, but he does play in a highly vertically inclined Giants passing offense (New York was one of six teams to post 200 or more vertical pass attempts), so his upside potential is greater than most. He's the type of wide receiver worth taking a chance on, especially because he is in a contract year.
[h=3]4. Dwayne Bowe[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 57.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 19
TFS positional rank: No. 14
Bowe scored 91 fantasy points in 13 games last year, a pace that equals 112 points over the course of a 16-game season. The 112 points would have tied for 30th among wide receivers last year and he did that in what was probably the worst passing offense in the NFL. Being the main cog in a pass-first Andy Reid offense is a big plus, as Reid is a master at putting receivers into favorable matchup situations. Alex Smith may be the best quarterback Bowe has had in his NFL career, as Smith had top-five figures in overall YPA, vertical YPA (VYPA) and SVYPA last year. Bowe should be at valued at least as high as a midrange WR2 and yet he can be picked right now as a low-tier WR2.
[h=3]5. Eric Decker[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 59.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 21
TFS positional rank: No. 18
Decker is perceived as being a second-tier receiver in the Broncos offense, yet his metrics indicate he would be a No. 1 wideout on almost any other NFL team. He posted a 10.1 YPA against qualifying cornerbacks (32 targets to qualify), a mark that ranked 11th in the league and placed him only one spot behind Demaryius Thomas (10.3 YPA). Decker had double-digit YPA totals at five major route-depth measurements and has a very favorable matchup schedule. The addition of Wes Welker does mean targets will be a bit harder for Decker to come by, but not to the extent that it drops Decker's value to a high-end WR3 status.
[h=3]6. Josh Gordon[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 124.1
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 43
TFS positional rank: No. 21
Gordon looks to be a perfect fit for the Rob Chudzinkski/Norv Turner vertically based passing offense. His 13.6 SVYPA last year was solid (ranked 34th) and his four stretch vertical touchdowns were tied for third. Defenses that attempted to cover Gordon with someone other than a qualifying cornerback were burned to the tune of 12.5 YPA, a total that was tied for third best in the league in that category (with Calvin Johnson). Gordon also excels on short passes (7.7 YPA, tied for eighth best). Losing two games to a suspension is a negative but it should only cause his potential value to drop by about 18-20 points. A decline of that caliber ought to move his value more to a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 than high-end WR4.
[h=3]7. Miles Austin[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 93.1
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 35
TFS positional rank: No. 22
Austin's 8.8 YPA last year was tied for 15th out of the 34 wide receivers who saw 100 or more targets. Some of the receivers he finished ahead of in that metric include A.J. Green (8.5 YPA), Brandon Marshall (8.4 YPA), Victor Cruz (8.2 YPA) and Steve Johnson (7.9 YPA). Austin's 55 vertical targets last season placed him tied for 22nd in that category. Those downfield skills helped him post eight double-digit fantasy point games and indicate he can still post starting caliber figures on a consistent basis. Austin also dominated weak cornerbacks (10.8 YPA), a fact that is a significant plus for a receiver with one of the most favorable schedules in the NFL. To get him as a 10th-round draft pick is an absolute steal.
[h=3]8. Cecil Shorts[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 83.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 31
TFS positional rank: No. 23
It's an understatement to say the Jaguars passing offense wasn't exactly dominant last season, yet that deficiency didn't prevent Shorts from posting some amazing numbers. His 14.9 VYPA was close to that of Randall Cobb (15.7 VYPA), Bryant (15.5 VYPA), Jordy Nelson (15.5 VYPA) and Thomas (14.6), all of whom were on teams with upper-tier quarterbacks. He also posted an 11.9 YPA against midrange or higher rated cornerbacks, a total that was the best in the league for wide receivers with at least 30 targets against that level of cornerback competition. Jacksonville's quarterback woes are a concern, but not enough of one to push Shorts down to high-end WR4 status.
[h=3]9. Sidney Rice[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 90.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 34
TFS positional rank: No. 30
Rice had some eye-popping metrics last year. His 13.0 VYPA ranked ninth out of 40 wide receivers with at least 40 vertical targets and his 11.7 YPA against qualifying cornerbacks placed second in the league. Rice's 7.6 short pass YPA was only one-tenth of a yard away from being a top-10 figure in that category. All of these combined to give Rice a 10.9 overall YPA that was tied with Thomas for fourth best among wideouts. His knee ailment does warrant some trepidation but with metrics of this caliber, Rice can justify a higher draft pick than he is currently receiving.
[h=3]10. Brian Hartline[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 144.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 55
TFS positional rank: No. 34
There may not be a more underrated vertical wide receiver in the NFL. Last season Hartline tallied a 12.2 VYPA on 66 targets, a total that topped Roddy White (11.9 VYPA on 70 vertical targets), Decker (11.3 VYPA on 60 targets), Green (10.7 VYPA in 75 targets) and Marshall (10.0 VYPA on 83 targets). Having Wallace on the other side of the field should keep the coverage pressure off of Hartline and allow him a good shot at replicating these impressive downfield numbers. There may not be a better lottery pick wide receiver in the fantasy football world this year.
The wide receiver position is second only to quarterback in terms of quality fantasy football depth this year. This fact moves wideouts down on the draft-day priority list for fantasy owners but in some cases it is causing players to fall below their actual value level.
This fourth part of a four-part series -- the first three parts can be accessed by clicking on the links above -- aims to assist fantasy owners to take advantage of this situation by identifying the 10 most undervalued wide receivers.
[h=3]1. Dez Bryant[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 18.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 3
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 2
Adrian Peterson won the 2012 MVP award because of his phenomenal performance in the last eight games of the year, but Bryant actually gave him a run for his money in terms of having an amazing second half of the season. Bryant racked up a 12.0 YPA in that time frame and put up 142 fantasy points. Prorate that point total over a 16-game campaign and it equals a QB1-like 284 points.
<OFFER>He was terrific against every level of cornerback competition (11.2 YPA against qualifying cornerbacks) and that is a huge plus for a wideout who has one of the most favorable cornerback schedules in 2013. This gives Bryant a potential point ceiling that justifies taking him over every wide receiver except Calvin Johnson.
[h=3]2. Mike Wallace[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 48.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 16
TFS positional rank: No. 10
In October 2011 there was a strong case to be made that Wallace had been a bigger gamebreaker than Calvin Johnson over the previous 22 games. Wallace has regressed some since then but that is largely because of the Steelers' injuries at quarterback. Joining an offense with Ryan Tannehill at the controls is a big plus. According to my draft guide,Tannehill racked up a 14.2-yard mark on 54 attempts in the stretch vertical yards per attempt (SVYPA) metric that gauges production on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield. That total ranked ninth in the league and was better than the SVYPA marks posted by Matt Ryan (13.7 on 60 attempts), Aaron Rodgers (12.9 on 67 attempts) and Tony Romo (12.4 on 69 attempts). Wallace may not get back to Megatron's level but he is very likely to reach WR1 status again this year and can currently be acquired for a fifth-round pick.
[h=3]3. Hakeem Nicks[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 56.7
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 18
TFS positional rank: No. 11
Rather than knocking Nicks for his injury-riddled 2012 performance, look at it this way: He posted a 7.5 YPA on only one good leg. Since the midpoint YPA for wide receivers is roughly 8.5 YPA, Nicks was only a yard off of that level under far less than ideal conditions. To be fair, health does seem to be something of a recurring issue for Nicks, but he does play in a highly vertically inclined Giants passing offense (New York was one of six teams to post 200 or more vertical pass attempts), so his upside potential is greater than most. He's the type of wide receiver worth taking a chance on, especially because he is in a contract year.
[h=3]4. Dwayne Bowe[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 57.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 19
TFS positional rank: No. 14
Bowe scored 91 fantasy points in 13 games last year, a pace that equals 112 points over the course of a 16-game season. The 112 points would have tied for 30th among wide receivers last year and he did that in what was probably the worst passing offense in the NFL. Being the main cog in a pass-first Andy Reid offense is a big plus, as Reid is a master at putting receivers into favorable matchup situations. Alex Smith may be the best quarterback Bowe has had in his NFL career, as Smith had top-five figures in overall YPA, vertical YPA (VYPA) and SVYPA last year. Bowe should be at valued at least as high as a midrange WR2 and yet he can be picked right now as a low-tier WR2.
[h=3]5. Eric Decker[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 59.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 21
TFS positional rank: No. 18
Decker is perceived as being a second-tier receiver in the Broncos offense, yet his metrics indicate he would be a No. 1 wideout on almost any other NFL team. He posted a 10.1 YPA against qualifying cornerbacks (32 targets to qualify), a mark that ranked 11th in the league and placed him only one spot behind Demaryius Thomas (10.3 YPA). Decker had double-digit YPA totals at five major route-depth measurements and has a very favorable matchup schedule. The addition of Wes Welker does mean targets will be a bit harder for Decker to come by, but not to the extent that it drops Decker's value to a high-end WR3 status.
[h=3]6. Josh Gordon[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 124.1
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 43
TFS positional rank: No. 21
Gordon looks to be a perfect fit for the Rob Chudzinkski/Norv Turner vertically based passing offense. His 13.6 SVYPA last year was solid (ranked 34th) and his four stretch vertical touchdowns were tied for third. Defenses that attempted to cover Gordon with someone other than a qualifying cornerback were burned to the tune of 12.5 YPA, a total that was tied for third best in the league in that category (with Calvin Johnson). Gordon also excels on short passes (7.7 YPA, tied for eighth best). Losing two games to a suspension is a negative but it should only cause his potential value to drop by about 18-20 points. A decline of that caliber ought to move his value more to a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 than high-end WR4.
[h=3]7. Miles Austin[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 93.1
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 35
TFS positional rank: No. 22
Austin's 8.8 YPA last year was tied for 15th out of the 34 wide receivers who saw 100 or more targets. Some of the receivers he finished ahead of in that metric include A.J. Green (8.5 YPA), Brandon Marshall (8.4 YPA), Victor Cruz (8.2 YPA) and Steve Johnson (7.9 YPA). Austin's 55 vertical targets last season placed him tied for 22nd in that category. Those downfield skills helped him post eight double-digit fantasy point games and indicate he can still post starting caliber figures on a consistent basis. Austin also dominated weak cornerbacks (10.8 YPA), a fact that is a significant plus for a receiver with one of the most favorable schedules in the NFL. To get him as a 10th-round draft pick is an absolute steal.
[h=3]8. Cecil Shorts[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 83.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 31
TFS positional rank: No. 23
It's an understatement to say the Jaguars passing offense wasn't exactly dominant last season, yet that deficiency didn't prevent Shorts from posting some amazing numbers. His 14.9 VYPA was close to that of Randall Cobb (15.7 VYPA), Bryant (15.5 VYPA), Jordy Nelson (15.5 VYPA) and Thomas (14.6), all of whom were on teams with upper-tier quarterbacks. He also posted an 11.9 YPA against midrange or higher rated cornerbacks, a total that was the best in the league for wide receivers with at least 30 targets against that level of cornerback competition. Jacksonville's quarterback woes are a concern, but not enough of one to push Shorts down to high-end WR4 status.
[h=3]9. Sidney Rice[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 90.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 34
TFS positional rank: No. 30
Rice had some eye-popping metrics last year. His 13.0 VYPA ranked ninth out of 40 wide receivers with at least 40 vertical targets and his 11.7 YPA against qualifying cornerbacks placed second in the league. Rice's 7.6 short pass YPA was only one-tenth of a yard away from being a top-10 figure in that category. All of these combined to give Rice a 10.9 overall YPA that was tied with Thomas for fourth best among wideouts. His knee ailment does warrant some trepidation but with metrics of this caliber, Rice can justify a higher draft pick than he is currently receiving.
[h=3]10. Brian Hartline[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 144.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 55
TFS positional rank: No. 34
There may not be a more underrated vertical wide receiver in the NFL. Last season Hartline tallied a 12.2 VYPA on 66 targets, a total that topped Roddy White (11.9 VYPA on 70 vertical targets), Decker (11.3 VYPA on 60 targets), Green (10.7 VYPA in 75 targets) and Marshall (10.0 VYPA on 83 targets). Having Wallace on the other side of the field should keep the coverage pressure off of Hartline and allow him a good shot at replicating these impressive downfield numbers. There may not be a better lottery pick wide receiver in the fantasy football world this year.
